2027 Salmon Market & Price Estimate

We’ve published a new Imarex Market & Price Estimate for the 2027 Norwegian salmon market. The full PDF report is available to view and download below. In this post, we highlight the central estimate and the conditions behind the upside “combined‑shock” scenario.

Key takeaways from the report

• Central 2027 price estimate: NOK 85/kg for the volume‑weighted Statistics Norway export price for fresh whole salmon.

• Combined‑shock range: NOK 92–100/kg if drought, elevated feedstock costs and lower biomass occur together while demand remains resilient.

• Central harvest estimate: Around 1.70 million tonnes, with a combined‑shock harvest range of 1.60–1.68 million tonnes (2–5% below the central case).

• Demand backdrop: 2026 export and retail indicators suggest the market is absorbing high volumes, with salmon still competitively priced versus other proteins.

• Feed and climate risk: The last El Niño showed how global climate and feed markets can tighten marine inputs and affect costs, even when local Norwegian sea temperatures are not dramatically higher.

  
  

What could push prices into the NOK 92-100/kg range?

The report outlines a potential combined‑shock scenario, which is not the base case. It requires several conditions to overlap:

• Heat and drought across multiple crop regions, lifting key plant‑input prices.

• Persistent tightness in marine raw materials such as fishmeal and fish oil.

• Norwegian harvest 2–5% below the central estimate, with Chilean inventories or biology offering less of a buffer.

• Export and retail demand remaining firm, so the market reprices rather than absorbing the shock quietly.

  
  

In this scenario, higher feed costs, tighter biomass and strong demand interact to create a materially tighter market than the central case.

Central case: firm but balanced

In the central scenario, Norwegian supply remains high but flatter after record productivity in 2025–26. Improved survival and feed conversion support output, while demand stays healthy but not unlimited. Under these conditions, the market remains firm but broadly balanced around NOK 85/kg, with a high‑supply scenario in the NOK 78–82/kg range.

Download the full report

For the full methodology, data series and scenario details, download the complete PDF:

Imarex Market & Price Estimate 2027.pdf

Download PDF • 1.12MB

The report includes production and biomass estimates, ENSO and feed‑market analysis, demand indicators, and a monitoring checklist for key risk factors to watch through 2027.